| Month | Subscribers | Revenue | Gross% | Ad Spend | Fixed Costs | EBITDA | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 — Jul 2026 | 27 | $1,568 | 42.4% | $1,500 | $169 | ($1,004) | ($1,004) |
| M2 — Aug 2026 | 52 | $2,964 | 42.4% | $1,500 | $169 | ($413) | ($1,417) |
| M3 — Sep 2026 | 88 | $5,034 | 42.4% | $2,000 | $169 | ($36) | ($1,453) |
| M4 — Oct 2026 | 133 | $7,626 | 42.4% | $2,500 | $169 | $563 | ($890) |
| M5 — Nov 2026 ✅ BREAK-EVEN | 193 | $11,123 | 42.4% | $3,000 | $169 | $1,545 | $655 |
| M6 — Dec 2026 | 261 | $15,025 | 46.1% | $3,500 | $561 | $2,864 | $3,519 |
| M7 — Jan 2027 | 351 | $20,176 | 46.1% | $4,000 | $695 | $4,604 | $8,123 |
| M8 — Feb 2027 | 448 | $25,775 | 46.1% | $4,500 | $841 | $6,538 | $14,661 |
| M9 — Mar 2027 | 553 | $31,794 | 46.1% | $5,000 | $3,169 | $6,485 | $21,146 |
| M10 — Apr 2027 | 687 | $39,506 | 46.1% | $5,500 | $3,169 | $9,539 | $30,685 |
| M11 — May 2027 | 829 | $47,677 | 46.1% | $6,000 | $3,169 | $12,806 | $43,491 |
| M12 — Jun 2027 | 964 | $55,441 | 46.1% | $6,000 | $3,169 | $16,384 | $59,875 |
| Year | Subs EoY | Annual Revenue | Ad Spend | EBITDA | EBITDA % | Valuation 4× | Valuation 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 FY2026-27 | 964 | $264K | $45K | $60K | 22.7% | $2.7M | $5.3M |
| Y2 FY2027-28 | 3,817 | $1.72M | $110K | $770K | 44.7% | $10.5M | $21.1M |
| Y3 FY2028-29 | 8,164 | $4.22M | $136K | $2.24M | 53.1% | $22.5M | $45.1M |
| Y4 FY2029-30 | 14,387 | $7.85M | $165K | $4.29M | 54.6% | $39.7M | $79.4M |
| Y5 FY2030-31 | 20,844 | $12.36M | $180K | $6.86M | 55.5% | $57.5M | $115.1M |
| KPI | Target | Warning |
|---|---|---|
| Churn Rate | Below 10% | Above 12% |
| CPA | Below $50 | Above $75 → kill |
| LTV:CAC Ratio | Above 3:1 | Below 2:1 = crisis |
| MRR Growth | Month on month ↑ | Decline = investigate |
| Gross Margin | 42%+ launch, 46%+ at 200 subs | Below 38% |
End of Month 3 (Oct 2026): Early warning check. If subs below 40% of model AND no clear reason why, review strategy.
End of Month 6 (Jan 2027): First genuine viability checkpoint. Full Christmas data. LTV, churn, CAC all visible.
End of Month 12 (Jun 2027): Full year of trading. If below 300 subs, LTV:CAC below 2:1, churn above 12% — hard conversation required.
Pull the plug trigger: Below 300 subs at M12 + sustained LTV:CAC below 2:1 + churn above 12% despite adjustments.